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Dollar commands vs mark, yen

LONDON:The dollar should continue to move higher against the mark and yen over the next 12 months, according to a consensus of 43 leading foreign exchange forecasters polled by Reuters between August 1 and 3.

The poll confirms forecasts made in July and in fact sentiment is stronger this month and expectations are higher.

Relatively the dollar is expected to be the strongest currency and yen the weakest.

According to some of the analysts this scenario fits with the perceptions of Japan, its politics and the structural reforms needed for economic growth to be fired.

On the dollar side, U.S. economic prospects are viewed with optimism, these coupled with the possibilty of the U.S. administration tackling the dual deficits successfully makes the dollar a stronger prospect, said dealers.

At 1416 GMT, the dollar was quoted at 1.3944/49 marks and 91.15/25 yen. Sterling/dollar was at 1.6061/71.

All three one month average forecasts indicate August will be relatively calm on the foreign exchange markets.

In one month the consensus is for dollar/mark at 1.3953, dollar/yen at 90.00 and sterling/dollar at 1.5983.

Most of the changes are expected to be against the dollar, mark/yen is expected to trade up 66.50 in the next 12 months.

The averages of the forecasts were as follows -

1-mth

3-mth

6-mth

12-mth Sterling/dollar

1.5983 1.5876 1.5670 1.5534 Dollar/mark

1.3953 1.4153 1.4389 1.4503 Dollar/yen

90.00

91.17

93.08

96.32 Sterling/mark

2.2301 2.2469 2.2547 2.2529 Mark/yen

64.50

64.42

64.69

66.42-Reuter