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French finance ministry job in play, game wide open

PARIS: French premier Lionel Jospin is expected to change his finance minister next week by bringing in a strong politician to sell the government's successful economic growth strategy in the run-up to elections in 2001-2002.

Christian Sautter, a technocrat who replaced the scandal-hounded Dominique Strauss-Kahn only five months ago, became a prime candidate to leave after he scrapped plans to streamline the tax collection service under union pressure last week.

When Jospin rejigs his cabinet as is expected next week, domestic politics will likely take precedence over euro zone economic policy constraints in picking from a list of possible contenders, analysts say.

Names cited as possible heads of the powerful ministry known as "Fortress Bercy" include Defence Minister Alain Richard, Justice Minister Elisabeth Guigou, former finance minister Michel Sapin and National Assembly President Laurent Fabius.

Dark horse candidates include Employment Minister Martine Aubry, European Affairs Minister Pierre Moscovici and Socialist Party leader Francois Hollande, but these seem unlikely bets.

Economists agree the job description for the finance department has changed with the rising union pressure. Jospin tried to calm these with offers of tax cuts made possible by windfall tax revenues, but Sautter failed to present these as a success for government policy.

Commenting on the choice to succeed Sautter, Jean-Louis Mourier of the Aurel research group said: "It's pretty wide open. The economy is now out of danger."

"It's going to need someone with a certain savoir-faire, someone with political savvy," said Stephan Rozes, head of the CSA polling institute.

Defence Minister Richard fits the capability criterion after competent handling of military matters with no prior knowledge before being appointed when Jospin took office in June 1997.

"He's a serious one," said Rozes, noting that Richard, 54, was an elected politician rather than a technocrat and formerly head of the parliament's budget committee, from 1988 to 1993.

A rival on grounds of stature is Elisabeth Guigou, whose birth to a French farmer in Morocco in 1946 makes her rise through the political establishment to the current post of justice minister all the more stunning.

Economists point out that Guigou might want to stay clear of a huge ministry which embraces finance, industry, budget and consumer affairs, because of recent health problems, while Rozes noted that Jospin might also be keen to keep here where she was.

Nevertheless, Guigou has a strong economics background after working at the Treasury and as adviser and then European Affairs minister under late President Francois Mitterrand in the run-up to the Maastricht treaty on monetary union.

Sapin, a less high-profile politician from the elite Ecole Nationale d'Aministration academy that produces many of France's top civil servants, was finance minister in 1992-93 and a member of the Bank of France monetary policy council in 1994-1995.

Another name cited is Fabius, who has been sidelined as the speaker of the lower house of parliament and barred from Jospin's inner circle. "It's never been a big love story," said Mourier.

Rozes said he saw no prospect of Jospin giving the job to a man whose line was closer to "liberal" British Prime Minister Tony Blair than Jospin. Fabius, a former prime minister himself, has nonetheless taken a high profile on economic issues.-Reuters