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China's attack on Taiwan will be suicide: Japan

MANILA: A Japanese security expert visiting the Philippines warned on Monday China would commit political and military suicide if it attacked Taiwan at this time.

Satoshi Morimoto, chief researcher of the Nomura Research Institute, also urged Japan to appeal to China and Taiwan to exercise "self-control" to defuse tension after the island's opposition candidate, Chen Shui-bian, clinched victory in presidential elections last weekend.

"Personally, I do not think that Chinese political leaders (will) allow the military forces to make a military campaign against Taiwan," Morimoto said in a lecture on security cooperation in Asia before Philippine government officials, diplomats and academics.

"I think this is militarily, politically a suicide."

Chen, whose Democratic Progressive Party espouses independence for Taiwan, has been backpedalling somewhat from that position, and on Monday called for a peace summit after Beijing had said it was "listening to words, watching actions."

Morimoto said that while Taiwan has no effective defence system against Chinese ballistic missiles, it is strong on conventional weapons in terms of its Navy and Air Force which can "protect Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait."

"Taiwan's territory is more than 10 times that of Normandy. They (the Chinese) cannot pass through Taiwan," he said, referring to the French coastal region where Allied forces made a massive amphibious landing during World War II which led to Germany's defeat.

"You look at the military balance, especially in conventional weapons. Taiwan is very favourable not only (with its) maritime forces but also (its) air force," Morimoto added.

"I do not think Chinese military forces can make a significant military campaign against Taiwan so far. So far means that we don't know in the future what kind of military balance (there will be) between mainland China and Taiwan."

Morimoto said Japan's role in the current tension should be "to give a message to Taiwan not to provoke mainland China and also to China not to (resort to) any kind of use of force."

Philippine Defence Secretary Orlando Mercado, who attended the lecture, told reporters he believed China and Taiwan would exercise moderation despite the sharp rhetoric heard during the Taiwan election campaign.

"I think... there will be a natural calming down," Mercado said. "The dynamic is that there will always be adjustments on both sides."

Beijing had issued stern warnings to Taiwan's 23 million people against electing a pro-independence candidate as president.

China has long threatened invasion of the island, which it considers a renegade province, to stop it from breaking away.-Reuters