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Bush seems headed for victory in S. Carolina

COLUMBIA: Texas Gov. George W. Bush, leading in every poll on Friday, seemed headed for victory in Saturday's crucial South Carolina primary but a massive turnout could still swing the battle for Arizona Sen. John McCain.

The vote, open to Democrats and independents as well as Republicans in this state which has no formal party registration, could be pivotal in determining which man eventually claims the Republican presidential nomination.

A Reuters/Zogby poll issued late on Friday showed Bush leading McCain 47-39 percent. Talk radio host Alan Keyes polled 7 percent and a further 7 percent said they remained undecided. The poll surveyed 604 voters likely to cast ballots in the Republican primary in South Carolina.

When these were asked which way they leaned, Bush's lead widened further to 51-42 percent. "It looks like Bush has it. Obviously anything can happen but McCain's only hope is a truly massive, unprecedented turnout of non-Republican voters," said pollster John Zogby.

A USA Today/Gallup poll showed Bush with an even bigger 12-point lead, 52-40 percent. An NBC poll gave Bush a six-point lead.

The winner in South Carolina will collect 37 delegates to the Republican National Convention, where 1,035 will be needed to win the nomination. But the battle was all about winning momentum for the big states that lie ahead.

No survey taken this week has shown McCain ahead but several have him within striking distance, suggesting that a larger-than-expected turnout could still propel him to a victory that would leave the Bush campaign on life support.

"I think I am going to win tomorrow. I do," Bush told reporters in Charleston. "People want me to win. People want me to be the nominee of the party."

"Our phoners and the people who are turning out the vote are enthused by the response. I suspect that just about everybody has made up their mind in South Carolina, and now it's time to get out the vote," Bush said after a rally at Presbyterian College in Clinton, South Carolina, the first of four get-out-the-vote rallies scheduled for the final day of the campaign.

With Bush campaigning in the conservative western part of the state, McCain hit the southern coastal area where he is stronger. Campaigning in Sun City, he called on people turned off by the traditional Republican Party to rally behind him to change it.

"We're going to win tomorrow because our cause is just," he said. "We've gone from the inclusive party to the exclusive party ... My friends, I want to go back."

Referring to the conservative Democrats who supported former President Ronald Reagan in two elections in 1980 and 1984, McCain said: "Come back Reagan Democrats. Help us make a better America."

The stakes could not be higher in the vote, which comes 19 days after McCain trounced Bush by 19 percentage points in the New Hampshire primary.

If McCain wins, he will become favourite to win the important Michigan and Arizona primaries next Tuesday. After that, confidence in Bush, once the prohibitive favourite for the nomination, could collapse.

If Bush wins easily, the McCain bandwagon could be derailed and his challenge could fade. If Bush wins narrowly, all eyes will still shift to Michigan but McCain will probably remain competitive through March 7, when California, New York, Ohio and a dozen other states are holding primaries.

McCain backers are hoping for a turnout of around 400,000, compared to the 276,000 who voted in 1996.

The State newspaper in Columbia reported heavy demand for absentee ballots on Friday, especially in traditional Republican areas of the state. In Greenville, the largest Republican stronghold, absentee ballots were "as popular as World Series (baseball) tickets," the newspaper said.

The two candidates have waged a bitter battle, with Bush enlisting the full weight of the conservative movement and the party establishment to blacken McCain's reputation and drive down his support.

McCain took his own attack advertisement, in which he suggested that Bush was as dishonest as Clinton, off the air last week after it seemed to backfire.

But Bush has run relentless attack ads against McCain. His supporters and surrogates have made and sent hundreds of thousands of telephone calls, e-mails, blast faxes and leaflets.-Reuters