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Australia grain: Wheat sets new crop record

SYDNEY: Australia's newly harvested wheat crop has unexpectedly set a new production record of almost 25 million tonnes, easily breaking the old record of 23.7 million tonnes of 1996/97.

The record crop for 1999/00 would come in at 24.0-24.5 million tonnes, Michael Shean, chief crop forecaster for Australia's national wheat exporter AWB Ltd told Reuters.

"Every indication we have is that it is a record crop," he said. Figures will be finalised in another few weeks.

The estimate of 24-24.5 million tonnes was cautiously based, he said.

The new record was set by a marked late kick in yields in New South Wales and parts of Victoria, which produced better than anyone expected, he said. Both states also produced above average tonnages of high protein wheat.

The strength of the late kick is indicated by the fact that AWB was still forecasting a wheat crop of 20-22 million tonnes in mid-December.

The new record continues the massive expansion of the Australian wheat industry in recent decades.

Production has grown from barely five million tonnes a year in the mid-1950s -- sometimes less, as in 1957-58 when only 2.7 million tonnes was produced -- to more than 10 million tonnes a year in the mid-1970s and now to consistently more than 20 million tonnes a year.

With annual exports of more than 16 million tonnes a year, Australia has risen to become one of the major forces in the world wheat trade, with about 18 percent of world traded wheat.

NEW CROP LOOKS BIG TOO

Australia's next wheat crop was likely to be around the same size as the latest crop, but was unlikely to set a new record, Shean said.

The only prediction being made at present was that the area sown to wheat was likely to be about the same size as the 11.9 million hectares of last season, with 12 million a ballpark figure, he said.

"But I would never assume that we would have as favourable season overall. We've had a string of them now and the odds of that continuing is beyond me," he said.

One reason for the series of good seasons was good soil moisture. It was not clear yet what the outlook was for soil moisture in the next few months, he said.

"We're not being overly optimistic or pessimistic about next year," he said."(But) I would not project a record for this year."

Barley production was expected to rebound this year from low-level production of around 4.4 million tonnes in the latest year -- down on the five-year average of 5.8 million tonnes.

The area planted to barley declined by 20 percent or more in the latest year because of poor price prospects at the beginning of the season.

"Everything has picked up during the year, there's still strong export demand, so we expect some of that acreage lost to be recovered this next year," Shean said.-Reuters