Chapter 16

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Contd. A Contd. B Contd. C

E. PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Chapter 16
ENERGY

I. Introduction
The energy sector plays a key role in the development and growth of the economy because the availability of adequate supplies of energy is a requisite to generate economic activities. Because of its importance to national economic development, the energy sector has been chosen by the present government as one of the four drivers of economic growth. The main objectives of the energy sector are ensuring adequate, secure and cost-effective supplies, utilizing the resources efficiently and minimizing its negative impacts on the environment. With overall energy demand increasing at a relatively faster rate amid supply constraints in the electricity sub-sector, the development of the energy sector has received greater attention.

The energy sector in Pakistan consists of oil, gas, petroleum products, coal and electricity. Over the last one decade oil/petroleum consumption grew at an average annual rate of 7.1 percent in the first half of the 1990’s, but slowed to an average of 5.1 percent in the second half of the 1990s. Gas consumption on the other hand, grew at an average rate of 3.5 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively during the same period. The growth in electricity consumption was 6.5 percent in the first half but slowed drastically to an average rate of about 3.0 percent during the second half of the 1990s, primarily because of its substantial increase in prices. During the first 9 months (July-March) of the current fiscal year, energy consumption with respect to petroleum, gas, and electricity have increased by 8.6 percent, 16.4 percent, and 2.0 percent, respectively. Against these growth rates of energy consumption, the average annual growth of energy supplies has been 6.1 percent during the first half of the 1990s and 3.9 percent during the second half of the 1990s (4 years’ average).

This chapter reviews the energy consumption and supplies in the country, various measures taken, and achievements made in respect of different sources of energy i.e. oil, gas, petroleum products, coal and electricity, during the outgoing fiscal year 1999-2000.

The annual trends of energy consumption (petroleum, gas and electricity) since 1990-91 to 1999-2000 are given in Table 16.1

Table 16.1
Overall Growth Rate of Energy Consumption
(Percentage change)

Year
Petroleum

Gas

Electricity

1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
July-March
1998-99
1999-2000
-0.1
10.3
9.4
10.1
5.5
11.7
0.03
8.5
0.1

-
8.6

-17.6
4.6
5.1
7.7
-0.7
6.6
2.6
1.7
4.6

-
16.4

9.6
7.4
7.7
2.4
5.5
5.8
2.3
3.7
-2.7

-
2.0

Source : Compiled from the information provided by the Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP)

II. Analysis of Energy Consumption

The component-wise sectoral analysis of energy consumption is presented below.

a) Petroleum Products
The energy consumption of petroleum products by major sectors since 1990-91 to 1999-2000 (July-March) are given in Table 16.2

Table 16.2
Consumption of Petroleum Products
(Percentage Share & Growth Rate)

Year
House holds % Share

Industry % Share

Agriculture % Share

Transport % Share

Power % Share

Other Govt. % Share

1990-91

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

Averge of % share from 1990-99
July-March
1998-99

1999-2000
9.5
(-15.4)
5.6
(-35.0)
5.2
(1.4)
4.5
(-5.2)
4.2
(-8.0)
3.8
(1.8)
3.3
(-14.5)
3.0
(-2.1)
2.9
(-1.2)

4.7

3.3
(-)
2.8
(-7.5)

11.5
(-11.5)
12.5
(19.3)
12.3
(8.1)
12.5
(11.7)
13.5
(14.3)
15.5
(27.9)
13.7
(-11.4)
12.5
(-2.8)
12.8
(2.8)

13.0

13.5
(-)
12.7
(2.4)

2.7
(-7.6)
2.6
(6.1)
2.4
(2.0)
2.3
(7.2)
1.9
(-12.7)
1.6
(-6.9)
1.7
(7.5)
1.5
(-8.9)
1.5
(1.7)

2.0

1.5
(-)
1.6
(18.2)

48.6
(3.4)
51.1
(16.0)
50.8
(8.9)
48.4
(5.0)
47.6
(3.6)
45.7
(7.4)
45.9
(0.5)
44.3
(2.6)
47.2
(6.8)

47.7

47.5
(-)
46.8
(6.9)

24.4
(11.2)
25.3
(14.0)
26.3
(13.8)
29.5
(23.6)
30.2
(8.0)
30.7
(13.5)
32.7
(7.8)
36.4
(18.5)
33.2
(-8.7)

29.8

31.9
(-)
34.1
(15.7)

3.3
(-17.7)
2.9
(1.6)
2.9
(10.5)
2.7
(0.2)
2.5
(-0.7)
2.7
(17.5)
2.6
(-3.2)
2.3
(-5.2)
2.3
(-1.2)

2.8

2.3
(-)
2.0
(-2.0)

Source : Compiled from the information provided by the Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP)
Note: The figures in parentheses are showing growth rates.

Table 16.2 shows that during the decade of the 1990s, on average, the largest consumer of the petroleum products has been the transport sector and accounted for 47.7% of the total consumption of petroleum products, followed by the power sector (29.8%), industry (13.0%), household (4.7%), others (2.8%) and agriculture (2.0%). With total motorized vehicles growing at about 7.8 percent per annum, petroleum consumption demand by the transport sector increased at 6.8 percent per annum during the period. During the first 9 months (July-March) of the current fiscal year, petroleum consumption by agriculture, power, and transport sectors registered sharp increases.

b) Gas Consumption
Table 16.3 gives the consumption of gas by various uses since 1990-91 to 1999-2000 (July-March). During the 1990s, on average, the power sector emerged as the largest consumer of gas, accounting for 33.9 percent of total gas consumption, followed by fertilizer (24.5%), industry (19.1%), household (17.5%), commercial (2.9%) and cement (1.8%). Gas consumption by various sectors registered an impressive growth in the first 9 months of the current fiscal year with the exception of cement sector.

Table 16.3
Consumption of Gas
(Percentage Share & Growth Rate)

Year
Household % Share

Commercial % Share

Cement % Share

Fertilizer % Share

Power % Share

Industry % Share

1990-91

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

Average % Share from 1990-99
July-March
1998-99

1999-2000
14.3
(11.1)
14.5
(5.9)
14.8
(7.1)
14.9
(8.8)
17.7
(17.7)
18.9
(13.4)
19.3
(4.9)
22.1
(16.5)
20.7
(-2.1)

17.5

21.4
(-)
20.9
(13.6)

2.6
(10.4)
2.7
(6.0)
2.8
(9.7)
2.8
(6.4)
2.9
(5.4)
2.9
(5.6)
3.0
(8.5)
3.1
(1.9)
3.4
(14.4)

2.9

3.5
(-)
3.0
(0.9)

2.8
(62.9)
2.4
(-9.6)
2.3
(1.3)
1.8
(-14.5)
1.2
(-33.9)
1.3
(12.5)
1.4
(15.2)
2.0
(38.7)
1.2
(-33.9)

1.8

-
-
-
-

23.2
(-0.6)
20.8
(-5.9)
23.4
(17.8)
26.2
(20.8)
25.9
(-1.9)
25.8
(6.1)
25.2
(0.0)
24.3
(-1.8)
26.3
(13.3)

24.5

25.8
(-)
24.6
(11.2)

37.9
(4.3)
39.8
(9.9)
36.5
(-3.6)
35.9
(5.8)
33.1
(-8.3)
32.0
(2.9)
32.4
(4.0)
29.4
(-7.7)
28.9
(2.6)

33.9

29.1
(-)
31.2
(24.8)

19.1
(2.9)
19.6
(7.6)
20.2
(7.6)
18.3
(-2.3)
19.0
(3.4)
19.1
(6.8)
18.5
(-0.7)
18.9
(4.4)
19.1
(5.4)

19.1

20.2
(-)
20.2
(16.6)

Source : Compiled from the information provided by the Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP)
Note: Figures in parentheses show the growth rates.

c) Electricity Consumption
Table 16.4 presents the position of electricity consumption since 1990-91 to 1999-2000 (July- March). On average, the household sector emerged as the largest consumer of electricity accounting for 38.8 percent of total electricity consumption followed by industry (31.8%), agriculture (15.8%), commercial (6.4%), and other government sector (6.2%). During the first 9 months of the current fiscal year, electricity consumption by household, industry, and commercial registered sharp increases because of the reduction in electricity evasion owing to the improvement in governance. On the other hand, electricity consumption declined substantially in agriculture sector because people have disconnected their tube well connections due to high tariff rates, and using other alternatives.

Table 16.4
Consumption of Electricity
( Percentage Share & Growth Rate)

Year
Household % Share

Commercial % Share

Industrial % Share

Agricultural % Share

Street Light % Share

Other Govt. % Share

1990-91

1991-92

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

Average % Share from 1990-99
July-March
1998-99

1999-2000
33.0
(11.2)
33.82
(10.1)
36.1
(14.9)
37.8
(7.3)
39.5
(10.2)
41.0
(9.8)
41.5
(3.7)
42.1
(5.2)
44.8
(3.4)

38.8

42.3
(-)
47.0
(14.2)

6.6
(5.5)
6.3
(3.4)
6.4
(8.9)
6.8
(9.1)
6.6
(3.0)
7.0
(12.9)
7.0
(1.6)
5.3
(-22.5)
5.5
(3.2)

6.4

5.3
(-)
5.6
(8.3)

35.6
(8.8)
36.3
(9.4)
35.7
(6.1)
33.8
(-3.1)
31.7
(-0.9)
29.2
(-2.7)
28.0
(6.1)
27.7
(2.6)
27.9
(-2.0)

31.8

27.2
(-)
29.3
(9.8)

17.8
(11.8)
17.2
(4.0)
15.4
(-3.6)
15.4
(2.4)
15.8
(8.3)
16.0
(7.1)
16.6
(5.8)
15.6
(-2.1)
13.0
(-19.0)

15.8

13.7
(-)
9.8
(-26.6)

-
-
0.9
-
0.8
(-4.2)
0.8
(0.3)
0.8
(8.7)
0.9
(16.6)
0.9
(2.6)
0.9
(-0.3)
0.5
(-42.1)

0.7

0.7
(-)
0.5
(-19.5)

6.8
(19.2)
5.3
(-17.0)
5.4
(10.3)
5.2
(-1.0)
5.4
(7.6)
5.7
(12.6)
5.8
(4.6)
8.4
(49.6)
8.0
(-7.2)

6.2

11.1
(-)
7.6
(-30.1)

Source : Compiled from the information provided by the Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP)
Note : Figures in parentheses show the growth rates.

III. Analysis of Energy Supplies

a. Historical Trend
The annual trends of primary energy supplies and per capita availability of energy [measured in tonnes of oil equivalent (TOE)] since 1990-91 to 1999-2000 (July-March) are given in Table 16.5.

Table 16.5
Primary Energy Supplies and Per Capita Availability

Year
Energy Supplies (Min TOE)

% Change

Per Capita Availability (TOE)

% Change

1990-91
28.469

-

0.257

-

1991-92
30.457

7.1

0.260

1.2

1992-93
32.953

8.1

0.273

5.0

1993-94
34.778

5.5

0.279

2.2

1994-95
36.062

3.7

0.282

1.1

1995-96
38.746

7.4

0.294

4.3

1996-97
38.515

-0.6

0.300

2.0

1997-98
40.403

4.9

0.307

2.3

1998-99
41.721

3.3

0.310

1.0

July-March

1998-99
30.669

-

0.228

-

1999-2000
31.968

4.2

0.232

1.8

TOE = Tonnes of oil equivalent
Source : Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP)

The primary energy supplies have increased from 28.469 Min.TOE in 1990-91 to 41.721 Min.TOE in 1998-99 or by 46.5 percent and per capita availability from 0.257 TOE to 0.310 TOE or by 20.6 percent during the same period . Similarly, energy supplies increased from 30.669 Min.TOE in 1998-99 (July-March) to 31.968 Min.TOE in 1999-2000 (July-March) or by 4.2% and per capita availability from 0.228 TOE to 0.232 TOE or by 1.8 percent during the same period. The per capita availability of primary energy supplies showed a rising trend over the years to meet the ever growing demand of energy of the domestic, industrial, commercial consumers.

Table 16.6
Sectoral Energy Supplies
(Percentage Change)

Year
Crude Oil

Gas

Petroleum Products

Coal

Electricity

1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
July-March
1998-99
1999-2000
13.3
1.6
-2.2
0.2
-6.2
8.0
-4.3
1.0
4.5

-
-2.2

4.1
6.2
5.9
6.9
0.6
6.1
4.7
0.3
6.5

-
8.5

6.3
8.2
9.9
10.6
3.3
12.6
-0.8
3.6
-0.4

-
7.9

8.9
16.1
-7.6
8.6
-10.6
13.9
-6.8
-6.3
6.6

-
5.1

9.1
9.6
8.2
3.8
5.7
6.3
3.8
5.1
5.3

-
9.4

Source : Compiled from the information provided by the Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP)

The supplies of crude oil, gas, petroleum products, coal and electricity since 1990-91 to 1999-2000 (July-March) are reported in Table 16.6 which exhibit large annual variations.

b) Developments in 1999-2000
i) Crude Oil
The remaining recoverable reserves of crude oil as on 1st April, 2000 have been estimated at 225 million barrels in the country. The average crude oil production during July March 2000 has been 56,141 barrels per day , against 55,703 barrels per day during the comparable period of last year, showing an increase of 0.8 percent. Of which, 21,488 barrels per day were produced in northern region (38.3%) and 34,653 barrels per day in southern region (61.7%), compared with 20,770 barrels (37.3%) and 34,934 barrels per day (62.7%) respectively during the same period of last year. Production of crude oil for July 99-March 2000 and corresponding period of last year is given in 99-Table 16.7.

Contd. A Contd. B Contd. C

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Year	Petroleum	Gas	Electricity
1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 July-March 1998-99 1999-2000	-0.1 10.3 9.4 10.1 5.5 11.7 0.03 8.5 0.1 - 8.6	-17.6 4.6 5.1 7.7 -0.7 6.6 2.6 1.7 4.6 - 16.4	9.6 7.4 7.7 2.4 5.5 5.8 2.3 3.7 -2.7 - 2.0

Year	House holds % Share	Industry % Share	Agriculture % Share	Transport % Share	Power % Share	Other Govt. % Share
1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 Averge of % share from 1990-99 July-March 1998-99 1999-2000	9.5 (-15.4) 5.6 (-35.0) 5.2 (1.4) 4.5 (-5.2) 4.2 (-8.0) 3.8 (1.8) 3.3 (-14.5) 3.0 (-2.1) 2.9 (-1.2) 4.7 3.3 (-) 2.8 (-7.5)	11.5 (-11.5) 12.5 (19.3) 12.3 (8.1) 12.5 (11.7) 13.5 (14.3) 15.5 (27.9) 13.7 (-11.4) 12.5 (-2.8) 12.8 (2.8) 13.0 13.5 (-) 12.7 (2.4)	2.7 (-7.6) 2.6 (6.1) 2.4 (2.0) 2.3 (7.2) 1.9 (-12.7) 1.6 (-6.9) 1.7 (7.5) 1.5 (-8.9) 1.5 (1.7) 2.0 1.5 (-) 1.6 (18.2)	48.6 (3.4) 51.1 (16.0) 50.8 (8.9) 48.4 (5.0) 47.6 (3.6) 45.7 (7.4) 45.9 (0.5) 44.3 (2.6) 47.2 (6.8) 47.7 47.5 (-) 46.8 (6.9)	24.4 (11.2) 25.3 (14.0) 26.3 (13.8) 29.5 (23.6) 30.2 (8.0) 30.7 (13.5) 32.7 (7.8) 36.4 (18.5) 33.2 (-8.7) 29.8 31.9 (-) 34.1 (15.7)	3.3 (-17.7) 2.9 (1.6) 2.9 (10.5) 2.7 (0.2) 2.5 (-0.7) 2.7 (17.5) 2.6 (-3.2) 2.3 (-5.2) 2.3 (-1.2) 2.8 2.3 (-) 2.0 (-2.0)

Year	Household % Share	Commercial % Share	Cement % Share	Fertilizer % Share	Power % Share	Industry % Share
1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 Average % Share from 1990-99 July-March 1998-99 1999-2000	14.3 (11.1) 14.5 (5.9) 14.8 (7.1) 14.9 (8.8) 17.7 (17.7) 18.9 (13.4) 19.3 (4.9) 22.1 (16.5) 20.7 (-2.1) 17.5 21.4 (-) 20.9 (13.6)	2.6 (10.4) 2.7 (6.0) 2.8 (9.7) 2.8 (6.4) 2.9 (5.4) 2.9 (5.6) 3.0 (8.5) 3.1 (1.9) 3.4 (14.4) 2.9 3.5 (-) 3.0 (0.9)	2.8 (62.9) 2.4 (-9.6) 2.3 (1.3) 1.8 (-14.5) 1.2 (-33.9) 1.3 (12.5) 1.4 (15.2) 2.0 (38.7) 1.2 (-33.9) 1.8 - - - -	23.2 (-0.6) 20.8 (-5.9) 23.4 (17.8) 26.2 (20.8) 25.9 (-1.9) 25.8 (6.1) 25.2 (0.0) 24.3 (-1.8) 26.3 (13.3) 24.5 25.8 (-) 24.6 (11.2)	37.9 (4.3) 39.8 (9.9) 36.5 (-3.6) 35.9 (5.8) 33.1 (-8.3) 32.0 (2.9) 32.4 (4.0) 29.4 (-7.7) 28.9 (2.6) 33.9 29.1 (-) 31.2 (24.8)	19.1 (2.9) 19.6 (7.6) 20.2 (7.6) 18.3 (-2.3) 19.0 (3.4) 19.1 (6.8) 18.5 (-0.7) 18.9 (4.4) 19.1 (5.4) 19.1 20.2 (-) 20.2 (16.6)

Year	Energy Supplies (Min TOE)	% Change	Per Capita Availability (TOE)	% Change
1990-91	28.469	-	0.257	-
1991-92	30.457	7.1	0.260	1.2
1992-93	32.953	8.1	0.273	5.0
1993-94	34.778	5.5	0.279	2.2
1994-95	36.062	3.7	0.282	1.1
1995-96	38.746	7.4	0.294	4.3
1996-97	38.515	-0.6	0.300	2.0
1997-98	40.403	4.9	0.307	2.3
1998-99	41.721	3.3	0.310	1.0
July-March
1998-99	30.669	-	0.228	-
1999-2000	31.968	4.2	0.232	1.8

Year	Crude Oil	Gas	Petroleum Products	Coal	Electricity
1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 July-March 1998-99 1999-2000	13.3 1.6 -2.2 0.2 -6.2 8.0 -4.3 1.0 4.5 - -2.2	4.1 6.2 5.9 6.9 0.6 6.1 4.7 0.3 6.5 - 8.5	6.3 8.2 9.9 10.6 3.3 12.6 -0.8 3.6 -0.4 - 7.9	8.9 16.1 -7.6 8.6 -10.6 13.9 -6.8 -6.3 6.6 - 5.1	9.1 9.6 8.2 3.8 5.7 6.3 3.8 5.1 5.3 - 9.4