Population
The population of a country is a double faced phenomenon. It is an asset/a vital factor in the development process on the one hand and rapid population growth can hamper development, on the other. population is generally studied by its following two aspects: a) Quantitative and b) Qualitative. The quantitative aspects of population includes: statistics of total population, density of population, birth and death rates, migration etc., while the qualitative aspects refer to the ability and capability of the people.

In 1951, Pakistan's total population was 33.8 million. By 1972-73, it reached 65.3 million. Its growth rate was 3.0 percent in 1981 but decelerated to 2.4 percent by mid-1998 and further to 2.2 percent by March, 2000. The growth rate is projected to slowdown further to 2.0 percent by the year 2003.

In total, Pakistan has conducted five Population and Housing Censuses i.e. 1951, 1961, 1972, 1981 and 1998. According to provisional results of the latest Census, the overall Population of Pakistan has increased by about 55 percent over the last Census held in 1981. This indicates an average growth rate of 2.6 percent, as against 3.1 percent observed during 1972-81. This is a welcome decline in population growth in all areas, except Islamabad District which showed an understandable growth due to large in-migration, since becoming the Capital of Pakistan. The growth rate of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) which was negative in 1981 Census have turned into positive, mainly due to better coverage and Development Division, Islamabad. and improved enumeration methodology of the March, 1998 census. This declining trend continued during the year 2000 and total population upto March, 2000 is estimated to be 137.5 million, with a reduced growth rate of 2.2 percent.

The annual population growth rate since 1981 to 2000 is given in Table-13.1.

Source: Population Census, March 1998 and Planning
and Development Division, Islamabad.

The province/area-wise population with respective growth rates and shares are compared
for 1981 and 1998 Census in Table-13.2

Source: Population Census 1981 & 1998

As per Population Census, 1998, the proportion of population by each province shows slight variation, as compared to 1981 census. The population of NWFP, Sindh and Islamabad Capital Territory have increased from 13.1 to 13.4 percent, 22.6 to 23.0 percent and 0.4 to 0.6 percent, respectively, while the share of Punjab has declined from 56.2 to 55.6 percent; FATA from 2.6 to 2.4 percent; and Balochistan from 5.1 to 5.0 percent. These slight variations could be attributed to a number of factors like varying degree of in/out-migration, over/under coverage, and difference in the methodologies of the 1981 and 1998 census.

Rural/Urban Break-up

a) Total Population
The urban/rural population break-up reveals that share of rural population has declined from 71.7 percent in 1981 to 67.5 in 1998 or by 4.2 percent. The share of the urban population accordingly has increased from 28.3 percent in 1981 to 32.5 percent in 1998 or by 4.2 percent. This suggests that every third person now lives in the city or town.

b) Provincial Break-up
An analysis of the 1998 Population Census reveals that the Capital Territory, Islamabad is now the most urbanised area with an urban population share of 65.6 percent. The FATA is on the other extreme end with the share of urban population amounting to only 2.7 percent. Amongst the provinces, Sindh is the most urbanised (48.9%) followed by Punjab (31.3%), Balochistan (23.3%), and NWFP (16.9%). As a whole, the urban population has grown universally in all provinces/areas and the rural population has simultaneously declined with same proportion. A comparison of the urban/rural population by province/area is given in Table-13.3.

c) Population By Big Towns
There are 23 big towns/urban centres, having population of 0.2 million and above. The biggest city in Pakistan is Karachi with a population of 9.3 million, followed by Lahore (5.1 million) and Faisalabad (2.0 million). These three big cities account for 38.4% of total urban population of Pakistan. The other big cities with population of over one million are: Rawalpindi, Multan, Hyderabad and Gujranwala. Almost half of the urban population lives in these seven big cities. However, the three big cities of the Sindh Province (Karachi, Hyderabad and Sukkur) account for 73.1 percent of total urban population and 35.7 percent of the total population of that province.

d) Share of Afghan Refugees
The influx of Afghan Refugees into Pakistan started in 1979 and peaked at 3.7 million in June, 1990. The data for Afghan Refugees reveal that Pakistan is still hosting around 1.6 million Afghan Refugees at the end of January, 2000. Pakistan from the very beginning has maintained a policy of temporary protection. Since July 1990 to January, 2000 approximately 2.1 million refugees are reportedly back to Afghanistan but on account of continued disturbances, non-availability of adequate economic opportunities, and other socio-economic conditions, about 0.327 million fresh Afghan Refugees have again sought refuge in Pakistan since May 1992 to January, 2000.

Source: Population Census 1981 & 1998.

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
According to the provisional results of Pakistan Demographic Survey (PDS) 1997, the natural rate of increase of population of Pakistan is 2.5% per annum. The crude birth rate is 33.8 thousand population. The crude birth rates by urban-rural residence obtained through various demographic surveys are given in Table-13.4.

A: Average.
P: Provisional
Source: F.B.S., Islamabad

Crude Death Rate
Crude death rate (CDR), defined as number of deaths per thousand population in a year, is estimated at 8.9 (9.7 for rural areas & 7.3 for urban areas). The PDS-wise crude death rate by urban-rural residence are given in Table-13.5.

A: Average.
P: Provisional
Source: F.B.S., Islamabad

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
The infant mortality rate (IMR) measures the mortality below one year of age. It is defined as the number of infant deaths during a year per one thousand live births of the same year. Infant mortality is a sensitive indicator of socio-per economic conditions, cultural factors, status of hygiene and availability of medical facilities in a country. Though, total mortality in Pakistan has declined considerably since independence, infant mortality is still high. The PDS-wise infant mortality rates by urban-rural residence are given in Table-13.6.

A: Average.
P: Provisional
Source: F.B.S., Islamabad

Sex Distribution
The overall sex ratio, as obtained from Population Census 1998, is 108. The sex ratio is higher in urban (112) than rural areas (106) probably due to male dominated migration from rural areas to urban areas. The sex ratio by urban-Survey rural areas are given in Table-13.7.

A: Average.
P: Provisional
Source: F.B.S., Islamabad

Household Size
The average household size has declined marginally from 6.7 persons in 1981 to 6.6 persons in 1998. The highest household size of 8.8 was observed in FATA, followed by 7.6 in NWFP, 6.8 in Punjab, 6.4 in Balochistan and 5.8 each in Sindh and Capital Territory, Islamabad. However, in between the two Census periods, the average household size for Balochistan and Sindh has slightly decreased from 7.3 to 6.4 and 7.0 to 5.8 respectively due to rapid urbanization/family break-ups while in all other areas, it has relatively increased. The household size by areas is shown in Table-13.8:

(Persons)

Source: Population Census 1981 & 1998.

Age Distribution
The age distribution of population (population of persons at various ages) shows that the population of Pakistan is relatively young with a high proportion of children under 15 year of age; an indication of high fertility. As a result, the dependency ratio (defined as the proportion of children under 15 year age and old persons aging 65 year & over to the population between 15-64 year) is quite high in Pakistan. One of the positive elements of Pakistan's economy has been its higher economic growth which has decelerated to its two-third level in the 1990s. The first and foremost economic challenge for the country is to regain the lost growth momentum because it has a wider implications for employment generation and poverty alleviation. According to the 1998 Population Census, almost 43 percent of population (both sexes) are below 15 years old. Most of them will be entering the job market soon. It is, therefore, essential to attain higher growth rate to absorb workforce entering the job market. Furthermore, what is also essential is to invest in social sector (education, health, training) so that this 43 percent children and youth become a productive assets for the nation. The percentage distribution of population by three selective age groups is given in Table-13.9:

P: Provisional
A: Average
Source: F.B.S., Islamabad, and Population Census organisation, Islamabad

Population Welfare Programme (PWP)
Population Welfare programme is an integral component of national development plan and is executed as part of Social Action Plan. It contributes to improving reproductive health care and includes provision of comprehensive family planning services. The programme highlights the concern for rapid population growth and underscores the need to integrate population variable into the development planning process. Actual expenditure for the past 10 years is given in Table-13.10.

Source: Ministry of Population Welfare.

Family planning information and services are provided to address unmet need and encourage voluntary adoption of small family norms in the country. The operational components of the programme include: service delivery, capacity building, advocacy & promotional campaign, operational research and provision for contraceptive services.

The main features of the population welfare programme are briefly reviewed in the following paragraphs:

i) Service Delivery Infrastructure
The service delivery infrastructure of the programme continued during the year, 1999-2000 and new centres have been added and made fully operational. Efforts have been focussed on improving the quality of care, ensuring regular supply of medicines, contraceptives, equipments and strengthening outreach services through satellite clinics and community based workers. By the end of current year, 1658 Family Welfare Centres, 101 Reproductive Health 'A' Centres, 131 Mobile Service Units, 500 outlets of Target Group Institutions would be providing information and services. At the same time, 6680 Outlets of Provincial Line Departments including Health Departments will be involved in providing reproductive health information and services. Over 23045 Registered Medical Practitioners, 13372 Hakeems and 7350 Homoeopaths will be associated to strengthen service delivery, referral and motivational activities of the programme. The population welfare services are also being strengthened in AJK, Northern Areas and FATA (adjoining NWFP).

The thrust for improvement of services in rural areas is sustained by deploying 12,995 Village-based family Planning Workers (including 1020 male workers) for provision of door-to-door family planning and maternal health care services.

The Social Marketing Network of 60,000 outlets is providing conventional and hormonal contraceptives on subsidized rates.

ii) Promotional Activities.
The programme is supported by a whole range of multi-channel promotional campaign with the content and message updated to address emerging issues in the framework of reproductive health. A new campaign has been developed with input/involvement of private sector/advertising agencies. Support of religious leaders has been solicited through local seminars. Special attention has also been given to male participation in the programme. New counselling manuals and related materials have been prepared and disseminated/distributed to provide support to the front line workers.

iii) Training Activities
Capacity building activities have covered clinical training at various levels. The training is mandatory for the management and grass-root work force of the programme in order to continually update their knowledge, skill and commitment to improve their performance.

iv) Monitoring and Supervision
Monitoring of the programme is undertaken through the MIS, regular supervision and review sessions held at the Federal, Provincial and Operational levels. Field Monitoring has been intensified through Special Supervisory Teams and follow-up actions taken. Contraceptive logistic system is being computerized. Stock and storage conditions at service outlets are being monitored regularly. Monitoring and Evaluation Cells in the Provinces are being further strengthened. The contraceptive performance for 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (July-March) is given in the Table-13.11:

Source: Ministry of Population Welfare.

II. Labour Force and Employment

The size and quality of population of working age are of great importance for the determination of level of employment, unemployment, under-employment and the productive capacity of the economy. The labour force has grown at an annual average rate of 2.7 percent as against the population growth of 2.4 percent during the last 8 years. Estimated on the basis of population of 137.5 million for mid-year 2000, the total labour force comes to 39.4 million. Of this, 26.9 million or 68.2 percent is in the rural areas and 12.5 million or 31.8 percent is in the urban areas. Distribution of labour force from 1996 to 2000 by rural-urban areas is given in Table-13.12.

*Note: Sudden rise due to change in Methodology.
Source: i) Planning Development Division.
ii) Labour Force Survey, 1996-97.

Labour Force Participation Rate:
There are two labour force Participation Rates, namely, the Crude Activity Rate (CAR) and the Refined Activity Rate (RAR). The CAR is the percentage of labour force in total population and the RAR is the percentage of labour force in population of persons 10 years of age and above. As the Refined Activity Rate (RAR) is the percentage of labour force of persons 10 years of age and above, therefore generally it is considered as labour force Participation Rate. According to the latest Labour Force Survey, 1996-97, Crude Activity Rate (CAR) is 28.7 percent as against 27.5 percent in 1994-95 and 27.9 percent in 1993-94. Similarly, the Refined Activity Rate (RAR), increased to 43.0 percent in 1996-97 from 41.2 percent in 1994-95 and 42.0 percent in 1993-94.

In rural areas, the participation rate is higher than urban areas, as agriculture is more of a family occupation than mere a work. Women's participation rate is lower than men's due to cultural taboos and non-availability of suitable job opportunities. During 1992-93 to 1996-97, the crude and refined labour force participation rates by area and sex are given in Table 13.13

Source: Labour Force Surveys 1992-93 to 1996-97.

Employment Situation
According to the Labour Force Survey, the employed labour force is defined as all persons of ten year of age and above who worked at least one hour during the reference period, either as "paid employees" or "self employed". The total number of employed persons in urban areas have increased to 11.6 million in 2000 from 11.2 million a year ago. Rural employment increased from 25.0 million in 1999 to 25.4 million in 2000. The distribution of employed labour force by urban/rural areas for the last five years is given in Table-13.14.

Source: Labour Force Survey.

Employed Labour Force by Sectors:
Changes in the growth pattern of the economy over the years have brought corresponding changes in the employment structure. Agriculture, the single largest contributor to the GDP, remained the single largest employer of Pakistani work-force. This sector used to employ about 58 percent of work-force in the 1960, but its share has gradually declined to 44.1 percent in 2000. As economy develops over time, the share of agriculture in GDP and employment also declines while that of manufacturing increases. In the case of Pakistan, the share of manufacturing and mining, instead of rising, has infact declined over time. The share was 14.75 percent in the 1960s, declined to 13.5 percent in the 1980s and further to 11.2 percent in the year 2000.

Source: Labour force Survey 1993-94, 1994-95 and 1996-97.

Interestingly the share of manufacturing in the GDP has increased from 14 percent in the 1960s to around 17 percent in the year 2000 but the share of labour engaged in this sector has declined over time. The growth of out put and employment in manufacturing sector clearly reflects the strong bias in favour of capital intensive technology.

Another interesting feature to note is the fact that until 1989-90 the manufacturing sector used to be the second largest employer of work-force. However, the deceleration in manufacturing growth in the 1990s has adversely affected its labour - absorptive capacity and placed it at the fourth position, behind the general trade and financial services sectors.

Employed labour force by sectors for 1994, 1995, 1997 and 2000 alongwith its sectoral shares are presented in Table-13.15.

Employment by Occupation:
The dominant role of agriculture clearly stands out when we analyze employment by major occupational groups. The data given in Table 13.15 suggest that major portion (37 percent) of the employed persons consists of skilled agricultural and fisheries workers. The next important occupational group is elementary unskilled occupations accounting for 22.8 percent of the employed persons followed by craft & related trades (9.8%), legislators, senior officers and managers (8.7%), services and sales workers (7.8%), plant & machine operators/assemblers(4.9%), professionals (3.5%) and technicians and associate professionals (2.9%).

Source: Calculations based on Labour Force Survey 1996-97

Unemployment
Unemployment is defined as all persons ten years of age and above who, during the period under reference, were (a) without work i.e. was not in paid employment or self-employed, & currently available for work i.e. were available paid employment or self-employment and (c) seeking work i.e., had taken specific steps in a specified period to seek paid employment or self employment. According to this definition, about 24 million labour force is estimated to be unemployed in 2000 as compared to 2.3 million in 1999. The rate of unemployment is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. Unemployed labour force by urban/rural areas since 1996 to 2000 is given in Table 13.17.

Source: Labour Force Survey 1992-93 to 1996-97.

Employment Promotion Policies
Being cognizant of growing unemployment in the country, the Government has launched an economic revival plan whereby the economy will be revitalized as a result of which economic activities will generate more job opportunities in the country. The plan focuses on higher investment (local as well as foreign private investment) and promotion of labour intensive sectors which include agriculture, small & medium enterprises, construction, energy and information technology. Government has established a micro credit bank for provision of credit facilities for self-employment. Some of the important measures are given below:

i) Employment in Agriculture Sector
Agriculture still absorbs a little less than half of the labour force and have potential to absorb more if properly and scientifically planned. Employment opportunities in the livestock, forestry, fisheries would also be promoted. Besides, state land not distributed so far will be allotted to landless persons. It is in this background that agriculture has been chosen as one of the drivers of growth in the economic revival strategy of the present government.

ii) Employment in Small and Medium Enterprises Sector
The Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Sector being a labour intensive sector has a great potential for employment generation. The sector is expected to play a major role in creating gainful employment. Accordingly constraints in setting up of such units are being removed. The Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority (SMEDA) shall meet the needs of small and medium businesses. Like agriculture, the SMEs is yet another driver of growth in the economic revival strategy of the government.

iii) Employment in Construction Sector
Construction sector is labour intensive and its employment elasticity is relatively higher. The Government has allocated Rs.15 billion for development of villages and small towns. Under this programme, farm to market roads, water supply schemes, remodeling and improvement of canals and water channels, improvement of karezes, tubewells and construction of small dams would be undertaken.

iv) Micro Credit Bank
Self-employment is an important vehicle for arresting the rising trend in unemployment. Emphasis would be placed on income generation activities for promotion of employment at the grass root level for which loans would be given on soft terms. In this connection, a micro credit bank has been established with an initial amount of US $ 100 million.

v) Technical/Vocational Training
Ministry of Labour, Manpower & Overseas Pakistanis has established Skill Development Councils (SDCs) to assess the training needs of a geographical area, prioritize them on the basis of market demand and facilitate training of workers through training providers in the public and private sectors. Besides, the Technical/Vocational Training System would be modernized according to the new technology in demand.

vi) Small Business Finance Corporation
Small Business Finance Corporation (SBFC) is a development financial institution established by the Government of Pakistan through an Act of Parliament in 1972. It has been providing credit facility to small borrowers for small and cottage industries since 1984. The lending operations of SBFC were later shifted towards self employment Schemes. SBFC started providing loans to educated unemployed youth by the name of YIPS (Youth Investment Promotion Society) from the year 1986-87. During 1999-2000 (July-March) the SBFC has disbursed Rs.202.49 million against 492 number of the cases, thus generated employment for 1,476 persons. Besides, under S.S. Industries category, an amount of Rs.3.28 million has also been disbursed during the current financial year upto 31st March.

Overseas Employment.
During the year 1999, about 80,500 persons have been sent abroad for employment. Efforts are being made to explore more overseas employment opportunities for Pakistani work-force. High level contacts are being established with manpower-importing countries like Saudi Arabia, U.A.E, Kuwait, Oman and Far Eastern countries. The community Welfare Attaches have been given targets for employment promotion and their stay abroad have been linked with the achievements of the said targets. In order to facilitate overseas employment in professional/highly skilled areas the Ministry has established a data bank of the interested emigrants and has launched the "CV-on-line Scheme for Overseas Employment Promotion".

Furthermore, National Institute of Labour Administration Training (NILAT), Vocational Training Institute and Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment are also imparting training to workers in different fields to improve their skills both for domestic and overseas employment opportunities.