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Bismillahir Rehmanir Rahim

Part-I

First budget of the new government

This is the first budget of the democratically elected government which assumed office in November 2002. The government has set an ambitious but realistic agenda for economic growth and poverty reduction. Pakistan has enormous potential that has largely remained untapped. The one over-riding factor responsible for this is inconsistency in economic management.

The foremost concern of the new government is to break the vicious cycle of catapulting economic policies. We no longer enjoy the liberty of playing with the economic destiny of our people. The imperatives of 21st Century are too daunting to spare our attention for such trivial pursuits. The government has carefully examined the policies followed in the country during the last three years and has determined that these policies are widely acclaimed for their effectiveness in stabilizing the economy and laying a good foundation for accelerating the growth process. The positive dividends of such policies are now beginning to accrue. Accordingly, the government plans to adopt and further refine these policies. There will be no discontinuity in the policy regime. We must bury the past when economic policies were frequently changed without any good bases. We must show maturity and prudence without which a strong nation cannot be built. We plan to make a new beginning in this country. A beginning of economic stability, continuity, certainty and long term thinking and planning. The minimal national consensus on economic issues is imperative and we are committed to give the same to the nation. Thus we will take all the political parties and members of civil society into confidence in the process of policy formulation and regular monitoring of economic policies.

Main features of the state of economy

Since the budget is the main instrument of economic policy, it is essential that we specify the objectives that we plan to achieve from this budget. For this a quick review of economic conditions in the country and identification of key challenges is necessary. The details of economic performance can be found in the Economic Survey of Pakistan which is already made public with other budgetary documents. The following key features of the economy are noteworth to set a background for the budget:-

(1) The economic growth for the year has been recorded at 5.1%, well above the target rate of 4.5% and the revised estimate of 3.4% for the last year. This performance, which is the best since 1995-96, signals the termination of low growth phase in which the country was locked for the last many years. Incidentally, this has happened at a time when there is global slow down. Pakistan’s performance is the best in South Asia and within the top tier in Asia.

(2) On the back of this growth performance, there has been a handsome increase of 12% rupee terms and 17% in dollar terms in the per capita income of our people.

(3) This growth has been based on a healthy growth in almost all sectors of the economy. Growth in agriculture was recorded at 4.2% against the target of 2.5%, large scale manufacturing recorded a growth of 8.7% against the target of 6% and services sector recorded a growth of 5.3% against the target of 5.0%.

(4) Inflation has been contained to 3.3%, well below the target of 4% and reflects continued price stability, due largely to adequate supplies of both agriculture commodities and industrial goods;

(5) Total investment was recorded at 15.5% of GDP against the target of 15% of GDP, thus surpassing the target.

(6) During the period July-April, foreign investment amounted to $695 million compared to $306 million for the same period last year, showing more than 100% increase.

(7) Foreign exchange reserves of the country have touched an unprecedented mark of $10.5 billion sufficient for 11 months of imports;

(8) The reserves have been accumulated through a combination of good exports performance, increased flow of remittances and support from creditors through rescheduling and concessional financing.

(9) Exports during 10 months were up by more than 20%, higher than the target growth for the year. For the first time in country’s history, exports have crossed the elusive mark of $10 billion.

(10) Remittances are likely to cross the level of $4 billion for the year, which is also unprecedented in the history of the country.

(11) The current account of balance of payments will be in surplus by a big margin of $3 billion. There were only two previous occasions when this happened in the country, first at the time of Korean War in early 50s and then in the wake of massive devaluation of Pakistan rupee in early 70s. While on each of these occasions it was a blip, the same is not the case this time. This surplus is for the second consecutive year, and if it was not for our concern for the growth of the economy, we could make a persistent feature.

(12) There is continued stability in the exchange rate, which has in fact appreciated by nearly 11% since September 2001. Here again, there were strong pressure for continued appreciation of the rupee against dollar, but for apprehensions relating to loss of exports competitiveness State Bank has stabilized it at the current level of around Rs57-58 to a dollar;

(13) Tax revenues have shown a healthy growth of 15% and the target of Rs.459 billion for the year will be achieved, Insh’Allah;

(14) There has been effective control on expenditures, while protecting the essential social sector expenditures.

(15) The combination of tight expenditure control and good revenue collection performance has led to the achievement of fiscal deficit target of 4.6% for the year;

(16) There has been considerable reduction in our debt burden, with the debt to GDP ratio that stood at more than 100% has been brought down to nearly 90%. Indeed, some fiscal space is now made available due to savings we have made in debt servicing charges. As against 64% of revenues, debt servicing is now brought down to 37% of revenues;

(17) Cost of borrowing has dramatically declined to unprecedented levels. The treasury bill rate at which government is borrowing is less than 2% per annum;

(18) There is plenty of liquidity in the market and credit to private sector has increased from Rs.37 billion last year to Rs.120 billion this year, which is again unprecedented. Credit to agriculture has also shown good growth as it increased from Rs.35 billion last year in July-March period to Rs.37.5 billion in the same period this year;

(19) The stock market is scaling new heights everyday and is currently rated as the best performing market in world.

Picture of a stable and reformed economy

This picture is that of a stable economy, which is not confronted with any major crisis, particularly from its perennial source of imbalances in external account. The days when we lived on a precarious level of reserves of only few hundreds million dollars and had to run for help from international finance institutions (IFIs) are now firmly behind us. A foundation has been laid for regaining country’s economic sovereignty. Although we will continue to work closely with our development partners, the on-going program of economic adjustment with International Monetary Fund will Insh’Allah be the last such program.

This is also the picture of an economy which is resilient, as it has demonstrated during at least three major crises that it faced in the recent past, namely, the long drawn drought, the events of 9/11 and the military build up on our Eastern border. More recently, we faced the Iraq crisis. Alhamdulillah, we have been able to emerge from each of these crises even stronger than we were when we faced them.

The economic resilience is due to a sustained process of reforms that the country has witnessed during the last three years. It will only be appropriate to acknowledge the fact that economic reforms in this country are not new rather they have been pursued for the last 15 years. All the governments during this period have made their contribution to further this process. However, there was always the problem of consistency and continuity of policies which resulted in the process being abandoned mid-way. The last three years differ from earlier periods only on account of consistency and continuity of reforms under the leadership of President General Pervez Musharraf. Consequently, we have begin to experience the fruits as well, like for instance in the shape of a resilient economy.

Challenges remain on the horizon

While the government draws comfort from this situation, it is not complacent. There are still many formidable challenges that we need to face and overcome. Five of these challenges are notable:

(20) Accelerated Growth: First, the need for accelerating the growth rate is quite pressing. This essential for poverty reduction, and for this purpose we must ensure that growth emanates from sources that have potential to create employment opportunities.

(21) Increased spending on human development: Second, we need to invest a much larger share of our development spending in human development and for this have to create additional fiscal space.

(22) Containing losses of PSEs: Third, the losses of public sector corporations remain a burden on the budget. This drag is affecting our capacity to invest in the human capital and development.

(23) Radical improvement in infrastructure: Fourth, there are significant bottlenecks, in achieving the full potential of our economy, posed by an inadequate stock of infrastructure. In particular, water storage, canals, roads and ports are some of the key infrastructures that need radical improvement.

(24) Private investment: Finally, the investment in the private sector remains a challenge. Although there have seen improvements in investment levels, both domestic and foreign, yet a much larger effort is needed to achieve high rates of growth.

These are the challenges to which we would now focus our primary attentions. It is now the second generation reforms that we are targeting. This budget is the first step in the direction of formulating a well structured and consistent response for overcoming these challenges.

Macroeconomic framework

The budget for 2003-04 is part of a three year macro-economic framework, covering the period 2003-2006, that sets the goals for major economic variables of the country. It will be useful to point out the main features of the framework so that one may appreciate how the budget will facilitate the realization of the goals set out in this framework.

These features are:

(1) GDP growth will rise to 6% in the year 2005-06;

(2) Inflation, on average, will be contained at less than 4%

(3) Gross investment to GDP ratio will be increased to 18%;

(4) Fiscal deficit will decline to 3.0%;

(5) Current account deficit will be contained to 1.8% of GDP;

(6) Foreign exchange reserves will be maintained for a minimum of 28 weeks of imports.

The above framework provides a yardstick to compare our performance. Our performance is in line with the above benchmarks, and in some cases, like in current account and gross reserves, we are already in a much better position.

Development Plan

Development expenditure is the most important part of the budget in as much as it adds to the overall investment in the economy. The National Economic Council, headed by the Prime Minister and comprising chief ministers of all provinces, has approved a development plan of Rs.160 billion for the year 2003-04. This represents an increase of more than 30% over the revised target of Rs.120 billion spent during the year. Such an increase is unprecedented. This has been made possible by the savings that we have made in debt servicing costs, largely on account of debt rescheduling, reduced cost of borrowing and by following a better debt management strategy.

The development program has three major thrusts:-

(25) a sustained application of new resources to attack the root causes of poverty implicit in poor social indicators such as in education, health, family planning and water supply.

(26) a significant expansion in the agriculture potential of the country through provision for additional storage capacity, building of new canals and rehabilitation of irrigation assets;

(27) a radical improvement in the physical infrastructure of the country such as roads, highways, ports, power and gas supplies;

In each of these areas a number of projects will be undertaken while those in the pipeline will be brought to completion. The main features of the development plan are briefly stated below:

Human development and poverty reduction

Our over-riding concern is human development and social welfare. We have approached this problem in a systematic fashion. Last year we had developed an Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP). This year this work was taken a step forward and a Draft (Full) PRSP has been developed and is made public for seeking views of various sections of the society and we have made this available to the honorable members of the Parliament also, which they can find in their folder of budgetary documents.

The PRSP is an outcome based approach to planning. We have begun to track expenditures that can be classified as poverty reducing. These include such expenditures as those on education, health, population planning, water supply and sanitation, housing and rural development. Quarterly reports are published and placed on the web-site of the Ministry of Finance. During the year, expenditure on poverty related activities will amount to Rs.161 billion as against Rs.132 billion last year, representing an increase of 20%. Next year total spending will be increased to Rs.185 billion, representing an increase of 15%

The main features of development program and other measures we plan to take in this budget to close the social gap are as follows:

(28) Education: In the development plan we have allocated to Rs.3.1 billion for education against the allocation of Rs.1.7 billion last year. This represents an increase of nearly 80% from last year. For higher education we have provided Rs.4.5 billion against an allocation of Rs.3.7 billion for this year. This represents an increase of more than 20%. For improving girls enrollment Rs.700 million will be spent for Tawana Pakistan aimed at better nutrition support.

(29) Health: The development plan has provided adequate resources to cover the cost of all a wide range of preventive programs against common and emerging diseases, which is the main plank of our health policy. Against an allocation of Rs.3.3 billion for this year, in the next year the allocation is raised to Rs.4 billion showing an increase of more than 20%.

Special Poverty Reduction Programs

(30) Tameer-e-Pakistan Program: The government has initiated a new program of small public works. Such a program is needed to create temporary employment opportunities and augment the sources of income for the poor. To ensure people’s participation, members of Parliament will be recommending schemes in their constituencies. Under this program small public works schemes, such as development of farm to market roads, water supply, sewage, garbage collection, spurs, culverts and village electrification are undertaken. An allocation of Rs.4 billion is kept for this program.

(31) Food Support Program: A targeted intervention to reach out to the poorest of the poor is the food support program. The new government has increased subsidy from Rs.2000 to Rs.2400 per. A total number of 1.2 million households are benefiting from this scheme.

(32) Microfinance: Microfinance has emerged as one of the most effective instruments of fighting poverty. The Khusshali Bank, which is now entering third year of its operations, has opened branches in 35 districts. So far it has disbursed Rs.1.3 billion to about 75,000 poor borrowers. Branches of Khusshal Bank will be opened in all the districts of the country. Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF), which was set-up to provide whole sale credit to microfinance institutions, including NGOs, has significantly increased overall lending. So far it has provided loans of about Rs.860 million for on-lending to 82,805 beneficiaries through various NGOs in all parts of the Pakistan.

(33) Zakat System: Zakat has come to occupy a central place in the social safety net programs of the country. On an overall basis, during the first 9 months of the current year, a total Zakat of Rs.4 billion was disbursed under different schemes among 944,855 Mustahiqueen compared to Rs.3 billion disbursed in the same period last year. Under the rehabilitation grant, an amount of Rs.2 billion was disbursed to 116,755 Mustahiqueen.

(34) Agriculture and water sector development: According highest priority to agriculture an allocation of Rs.17 billion against Rs.10.9 billion last year, representing an increase of 60%. The projects for expansion of water storage capacity through provision of new dams, new sources of irrigation through flood canals, drainage and rehabilitation of irrigation system are included in this plan.

(35) IT development: Information technology remains an important focus of the government. A large number of projects aimed at promoting IT and its education have been completed and many more are planned for the next year. For this purpose an allocation of Rs.2 billion has been made.

(36) Physical infrastructure: To expand infrastructure major investments in power, transport and roads are planned. In power sector Rs.31 billion have been allocated that would lead to new hydel projects, transmission lines and village electrification. In Railways Rs.8 billion have been allocated for upgrading and expanding all assets of the railways. In roads sector, an allocation of Rs.16.7 billion has been made that would see completion of many roads as well as development of new roads such as linking Gwadar to Chaman and Rattodero. Gas supplies be provided to a number of areas around Pakistan especially in the rural sector.

(37) Port Development: The work on Phase-I of Gwadar port, comprising deepening of channel and construction of 3 berths, is proceeding apace and an expenditure of Rs.5.1 billion was incurred during the year. In the budget for 2003-04 an additional expenditure of Rs.3.4 billion is planned. The Phase-I will be completed by end 2004, which will represent a watershed in the economic history of Balochistan and Pakistan.

Gwadar Seaport

Gwadar deep sea port project belongs to a category of projects which are undertaken once in a century. For the 21st Century, this is the project for Pakistan. There is a great deal of interest shown by Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics for the development of this project since it will enable them to access port facilities from a much shorter distance. The Chinese Government has given gracious support for this project for which we are grateful to them.

To realize the true economic potential of this project a wide array of economic activities will be promoted the use the port as their focal point. The Prime Minister, during his visit to Gwadar in May had announced that the Gwadar Seaport and a large demarcated area around the Gwadar city will be declared as a Special Economic Zone (SEZ). All imports into the SEZ will be free of customs duty, sales tax and all other levies collected by the customs department. The government has also decided to give a 7 years tax holiday so far as income tax is concerned.

Debt strategy

Debt is a major economic ill afflicting our economy. Government has developed well a planned strategy to reduce the debt burden. Over the last three years, we have reduced the burden of most expensive foreign liabilities on Pakistan by nearly $3 billion from $37.9 billion as on 30-6-2000 to a projected level of $34.9 billion as on 30-6-2002. This represents a reduction of nearly 15% in foreign liabilities. In addition, our external debt has undergone a major re-profiling, whereby the share of expensive debt has declined compared to soft term debt. Both these initiatives were made possible through a combination of rescheduling, increased availability of foreign exchange reserves and contraction of soft loans. We are planning to retire still more foreign liabilities every year.

On the domestic side we have achieved considerable success by reducing outstanding domestic debt as percentage of GDP for the second consecutive year. From 50.5% of GDP in 2000-01, the outstanding domestic debt has declined to 43.5% of GDP. This has been made possible by a massive reduction in the rate of return on government borrowing, which at present is less 2% for treasury bills. Consequently, the overall debt servicing burden has declined significantly from 64% of total revenues to only 36% of revenues. Clearly, this has provided the much needed additional fiscal space which has allowed us to spend more on development budget.

Prices Situation

An important benefit of reforms we are experiencing is the situation of prices. The price stability witnessed since 1999-00 is unprecedented in the previous history of the country. For the last four years, inflation has averaged well below 4%. This is the result of tight expenditure control, low fiscal deficit, prudent monetary policy and above all appropriate freedom and incentives to farmers and industrialists for increased production. A grass roots program of reforms is behind all these measures.

Since the new government assumed office, it is placing even greater emphasis on price stability. During November 2002 and May 2003, the prices of 33 items out of 52 items included in the sensitive price index showed either decline or no change. These included such essential items as wheat flower, roti, sugar, all pulses, rice, vegetable ghee and a number of vegetables. The overall inflation during this period was merely 2%, reflecting a further slowing down of inflation.

This stable price situation is positively comparable to those prevailing in other countries of the region. The prices in Pakistan are generally lower than those prevailing in India and Bangladesh. For instances, prices of sugar, vegetable ghee, wheat, rice, pulses, and many more things are lower in Pakistan than in these countries. The one area where Pakistan has higher prices is energy.

Prices of utilities continue to affect the budget of the common man As much as the government would like to mitigate this impact on common man, its options are somewhat limited. We must understand two things about the cost of utilities. First, for lack of any significant domestic source, we depend on imports for meeting our energy needs. Second, government has no control over international prices. We are transparently passing on the effect of changes in international prices. If we don’t do so then we will have to meet the additional cost by extra borrowing. Our national choice is simple: Either ask those who use energy to meet the cost today, or pass it on to future generations. The debt burden we are carrying today is not against the moneys this generation had borrowed, rather this was done by those before us, yet we are bearing this burden. We must pay today for whatever we are consuming and refrain from shifting this cost to future generations.

This does not mean that the government has not done anything to mitigate the impact of utilities prices within the constraints of existing resources. Significant support was made available to both WAPDA and KESC to provide relief to agriculture and domestic consumers and to limit their tariff increase to bearable levels. In particular, a total of support of Rs.76 billion was given to WAPDA and KESC during the year and next year Rs.53 billion are budgeted. Without these enormous doses of support, the electricity tariffs would have called for much larger increases. Clearly, these are subsidies given to mitigate the impact of increased cost of electricity.

There is a silver lining that we see on the horizon that may bring down utility prices in not too distant a future. First, we are nearly through with the front-loaded payment due to IPPs, after which there will be substantial reduction in their tariff. Second, additional gas is being made available to oil-fired power projects even in the private sector, which would significantly lower their cost of production. Third, we are trying hard to develop new power projects on coal and hydel. The cost of these projects will be significantly lower than oil-fired projects. The combined effect of these developments will be positive on utility prices in the coming years and hopefully this burden will also be abated. In addition, the government is expending efforts to develop alternative sources of energy. For this purpose, the Prime Minister has set-up an Alternative Energy Development Board which would formulate programs for the promotion of solar and wind energy programs.

Employment

Poverty is closely linked with lack of employment. Government is therefore endeavoring to create job opportunities in the country. Since employment is a function of level of public and private investment, it is important that the overall level of investment should increase in the country. This year we have raised development budget by more than 30% which is unprecedented. These public sector investments will create significant employment opportunities through increased public sector demand for goods and services. In addition, expenditure on Tameer-e-Watan program and increased availability of microfinance will create new temporary employment opportunities for a large number of people.

This year until May 2003, overseas employment corporation had arranged 126,418 jobs Pakistanis in foreign countries and the target for the year is 150,000 which is likely to be achieved.

While these efforts provide some relief to people, more needs to be done to address the problem of unemployment on a more sustainable basis. The answer to this lies in expansion of economic activities in the private sector, as government is no longer the main source of new employment. For this purpose, we are working to encourage private investment in the country.

Investor confidence

Although the process of private sector investment has been slow in the last three years, there are now signs that this trend is reversing significantly. The following facts support this observation:

(38) Foreign investment during the first 9 months of the year amounted to $670 million, which is more than double the investment that flowed last year;

(39) The imports of machinery have increased by more than 35% in the first 11 months of the year, indicating that significant capital investment is taking place in the country;

(40) The credit off-take by the private sector rose by more than 3 times during the first 10 months from Rs.37 billion to Rs.120 billion.

All the above facts point to the fact that the private sector is finally responding to the improved fundamentals of the economy. The following measures contained in this budget will go a long way in this regard:

Unequivocal message of consistency and continuity in economic policy;

Further rationalization of tariff with a view to improving the competitiveness of our industry;

Constant review of tax laws and tax machinery that should act as a major source of comfort to business community;

Further improvements in the process of refunds and removal of other procedural bottlenecks in complying with the tax laws;;

A competitive and reformed banking sector and capital market, that is catering largely to the needs of the private sector;

Constant review and removal of irritants that have the potential to impose undue costs on businesses.

I am confident that in the days ahead the private sector will display greater confidence in the economic regime and come forward to investment at a much broader scale than at present.

SME Sector

A major focus our policy is the development of SME sector, as it has the ability to spur pro-poor growth. The massive reduction in interest rates and across the board reduction in tariffs will go a long way in supporting this sector. We are working closely with all commercial banks to open special windows for providing financing to this sector. State Bank is designing a new set of prudential regulations to meet the peculiar needs of SME financing. The SME Bank is now fully geared up to play a major role in the development of SME sector. The Bank will be further reducing its cost of financing to give impetus to demand for SME financing.

Overseas Pakistanis

Overseas Pakistanis remain a major contributor to the development of the economy. The economic stability we are experiencing today, in a significant measure, has been brought about by their contribution as well. Their remittances have helped strengthen the economy and we are endeavoring to channel these to productive investments.

I have recently reviewed the Foreign Exchange Remittance Card Scheme and have issued necessary instructions for streamlining its operations and broadening the incentives associated with it.

It is proposed to increase the duty free allowance for card holders from $800 to $1000 per year for silver card holders and from $1500 to $2000 per year for gold card holders. In addition, additional items are added in the list of admissible items, including CD player, DVD player, tape recorder, sewing machine and gas burner.

Housing Sector

Housing is one of most fundamental needs of our people. It is the right of every household that it should have a place of shelter for a decent living. For lack of policy support and generally scarce availability of formal financing for the sector, the country presently faces a serious shortage of housing stock. It is estimated that there is housing shortfall of 5.38 million units whereas against annual addition of 300,000 units, the new demand is 570,000. Thus there is constant increase in the shortfall. Even if we double the new housing units, it will take nearly 20 years to meet the existing shortfall. Given strong backward and forward linkages associated with the growth of housing sector, it is imperative that some concerted efforts be made to give a major push to this sector.

The key to the development of this sector is the availability of financing. Unfortunately, housing has been one of the least favorite sectors of banks and financial institutions. In part this was due to relatively high cost of financing which was not feasible for the development of this sector. The economic conditions presently obtaining are highly conducive to the development of this sector and the government is ceasing the opportunity.

The following measures are proposed in this regard:

(1) State Bank has introduced a number of radical changes in the regulatory environment to encourage housing finance. For this purpose following measures are noteworthy:

(a) the debt equity ratio has been improved to 80-20 as against 70-30;

(b) the per party limit has been raised to 7.5 million as against 5 million;

(c) the exposure limit has been increased from 5% to 10 of net advances;

(d) the maximum loan period has been enhanced to 20 years against 15 years;

(e) the maximum limit of lending for HBFC has been increased from Rs.20 million to Rs.50 million.

(41) The foreclosure law has been amended to allow the banks to repossess the property without recourse to Courts.

(42) Government employees have few opportunities to borrow for the purpose of house building. This is understandable in view of the limited budgetary resources available in the country. To overcome this problem, it has been decided to induct House Building Finance Corporation in this area. HBFC will be providing housing loans to all government employees against the obligation of federal government to make deduction from the salaries of the employees and service these loans. This is a major relief to government employees.

(43) Provincial Governments are rationalizing stamp duties and registration fees on transfer and acquisition of housing property minimize the financial burden on owners and encourage proper documentation.

(44) A Committee comprising federal and provincial officials is being constituted that would examine all regulations relating to registration, transfer, dispute resolutions and duties applicable to property and real estate markets. A coordinated set of policy changes will be announced in the light of the report of the committee in consultation with the provincial governments.

(45) Federal and Provincial Governments will generously provide new lands in all parts of Pakistan for housing schemes. The federal government will enable provincial governments to reach similar arrangements with banks and financial institutions as for the federal government employees.

Budget estimates for 2003-04 and Revised Estimates 2002-03

The budget estimates for the year 2003-04 together with a review of budgetary performance of the current year i.e. 2002-03 is presented below.

Against a revised fiscal deficit of 4.5% of GDP for this year, the budget for 2003-2004 envisages a budget deficit of 4.0% of GDP. This represents a significant fiscal adjustment. A combination of better revenue collection and expenditure control measures has made it possible for us to shoot for this target.

CBR revenues will rise to Rs.510.0 billion from revised estimates of Rs.458.9 billion for 2002-03, representing an increase of 11.13%. Current expenditure has been budgeted at Rs.645 billion against Rs.673 billion for revised estimates of 2002-03. This has been made possible by a flat defense expenditure and savings in debt servicing.

Provincial transfers are projected at Rs.214.8 billion against the revised estimates of Rs.192.8 billion for the current year, representing an increase of 11%. The projected income and expenditures indicate that the provinces are likely to have an improvement of about Rs.11 billion in their cash balances after catering for the local component of their PSDP and extra expenditure.

Based on the above estimates, we expect that our budget will not only consolidate the process of fiscal discipline but also promote the process of economic revival. Impetus to economic activities will be a crucial measure of the success of the budget.

Relief Measures

Government is conscious of the need for catering to the special circumstances surrounding certain classes of citizens. For their welfare, following measures are proposed:

(46) NSS Scheme for Widows: For the benefits of widows, it has been decided that the special savings scheme available to retired pensioners will also be available to widows.

(47) Increase of Pensions: Pensioners deserve our respect and sympathy for their services they have rendered during their working life. To give some relief to them it has been decided to raise their pensions.

(48) Salary of Government employees: The report of the pay and pension committee was partially implemented in the last budget. It is proposed to give some more relief to government employees. For this purpose, salaries will be increased.

Part-II

Tax policy and administration have been the major focus of economic reforms. The program implemented in this area was ambitious and required greater steadfastness than in any other area. By the same token, the tax system presents perhaps the most formidable challenges of continuity and consistency of policy.

Reforms in Tax Administration

The key elements of tax administration reforms and their status of implementation in each of the main taxes are as follows:

INCOME TAX

(1) Income Tax Ordinance 2001: The most sweeping tax administration reform is the promulgation of a new Income Tax Ordinance 2001 which became effective from July 1, 2002 and incomes under it will be assessed in the year 2003-04. This law represents a revolutionary advance in instituting a modern tax system in the country where discretionary powers of tax authorities are minimized, presumptive and non-adjustable taxes have been gradually removed, self assessment is allowed for all types of incomes, audit is the main instrument of discouraging misreporting and discrimination against different classes of taxpayers has been eliminated.

(2) Large and Medium Taxpayer Unit (LTU): A Large Taxpayer Unit (LTU) has been launched in Karachi in accordance with the schedule. This office caters to the complex and wide ranging operations of the largest taxpayers of the Karachi region. Five more medium taxpayer units (MTU) for income tax will also be established to prepare the income tax organization to be transformed from a circle based organization into a functionally specialized organization.

(3) Reform strategy document: Through a well planned document these examples of excellence will be replicated over time in different areas of tax administration.

CUSTOMS

In the customs we have introduced the following reforms:

(4) Round the clock customs clearance: A pilot program has been launched in Karachi where the clearance operations will soon be conducted round the clock. This fully automated system will be functional within the next 9 months. It will significantly reduce clearance time from the average of eight days to within 48 hours.

(5) Risk management:: The customs pilot project will modernize import and export clearance procedures by introducing the concept of risk management and self-assessment. It has been decided that in future customs control will be carried out on selective basis by using risk management techniques. The application of the principle of risk management will allow customs to focus on high risk imports of non-compliant importers. The new system of customs clearance after successful completion of the pilot at Karachi Container Terminal by March 2004 will be replicated throughout the country in next few years.

Sales Tax

The following reforms are being introduced in the administration of sales tax:

(6) Alternate Dispute Resolution Mechanism: The Alternate Dispute Resolution system is now functional. A panel of renowned persons from private sector including chartered accountants, lawyers, academicians and prominent taxpayers has already been notified. The unanimous recommendations of the ADR committees are now being made binding on the Central Board of Revenue.

(7) Refund of sales tax and customs duty: The procedures for payment of rebates of customs duties and sales tax refunds have always been subject to criticism. It is stated that all customs duties rebates are now being paid on time and there are no reports of any delay.

(8) Transparency in sales tax refunds: In order to make the refund system more transparent and efficient, all sales tax refund claims are now received in computer diskettes for processing without any human interference. The result is that complaints of collusion and arbitrariness in the refund system have diminished significantly.

(9) Risk management in refunds: To further simplify the sales tax refund system quality exporters will be paid the refund amount in a single installment within ten days of filing of claim instead of multiple installments over 40 days. Moreover the exporters in the gold and silver categories will also be entitled to this facility. All exporters with annual exports of $ 5 million or more will be extended the facility of local purchase of raw materials from the registered person without any payment of sales tax against a bank guarantee or a certified post dated check.

(10) Refunds simplification and cost to exchequer: By un-blocking the refunds in the manner stated above, the government will undergo a cash flow constraint of approximately Rs.6 billion. The government is prepared to take this hit for the sake of assisting the legitimate needs of the exporters as well as to remain steady on the path of reform.

I now present the specific tax proposals within the context of each of the main taxes:

INCOME TAX

Income tax is the tax of the future. The proposals formulated for the next budget would reflect government’s continued faith on the potential of this tax.

The following are the proposals for income tax:

(11) Concession on cost of housing finance: Borrowing cost on a loan obtained for housing purpose from selected sources is entitled for tax credit to the extent of Rs.100,000 or 25% of the income – whichever is less. To encourage housing sector, it is proposed to enhance the said limit to Rs.500,000 or 40% of the income – whichever is less. The facility is also being extended to loans from any bank or non-bank financial institution.

(12) Increase in the limit of property income for withholding tax: The rate of withholding tax on property income is 7.5% if the annual amount of rent is Rs.100,000 or more. To encourage the housing sector, this limit is enhanced to Rs.200,000 and the rate of withholding tax is reduced to 5%.

(13) Concession on profit or interest from mortgaged property: It is proposed that profit or interest on mortgage of property or other capital charge will be an allowable deduction for the purpose of income tax.

(14) Lease rentals tax deductible: It is proposed that any amount paid or payable to Scheduled Bank or an Investment Bank or DFI or a Modaraba or a Leasing Company by a person in connection with the lease of an asset which is income of the lessor will be allowed as an expense.

(15) Smoothing out the tax liability on defense savings certificates: For investment in Defence Saving Certificates, where profit is payable on maturity or encashment of such certificates, it is proposed to tax such profit in the tax year to which it relates or accrued. The recipient of profit can give option for taxation as per the new provision of law.

(16) Rationalization of the rates of withholding tax for various agents: Withholding tax rate on brokerage and commission is 5% while the said rate in respect of indenting commission agents is 10% which is against the principle of equity. Therefore, it is proposed to reduce the said rate at 5% to bring them at par with other commission agents.

(17) Allowing initial depreciation to imported second hand plant and machinery: To encourage investment in industry, it is proposed to provide initial depreciation to plant and machinery imported second hand and used in Pakistan.

(18) Capital gains on shares of listed companies: Exemption on capital gains of public companies listed on stock exchange would be available upto tax year 2005.

(19) Provision of carry forward of losses incurred during period of exemption: Business loss sustained by a concern during the tax holiday period is not adjustable against income of the post-exemption period. It is proposed that such businesses may also be allowed to carry forward their losses.

(20) Adjustment of fixed income tax at import stage for capital goods: Tax deducted at import stage is final discharge of tax liability except in the case of raw materials imported by industrial undertaking for its own use, which is adjustable at the time of determination of final tax liability. For the minimization of presumptive tax regime and the globalization of taxation, it is proposed that the tax withheld on import of fixed or capital assets imported by an industrial undertaking for its own use may also be made adjustable.

(21) Individuals to pay advance tax on the basis of last assessed income: Advance income tax is payable in four quarterly installments on turnover basis by all the taxpayers. The individuals having non-business income or having share from association of persons or registered firm etc. have no turnover and are, thus, not liable to pay advance tax, whereas previously they were required to pay advance tax on the basis of last assessed income. It is proposed that advance payment of tax on turnover be restricted to companies and AOPs and individuals should pay advance tax on the basis of last assessed income.

(22) Exemption of income of sport boards or authorities: Income derived by any Board or organization established by Government of Pakistan for the purposes of controlling, regulating or encouraging major games and sports recognized by the Government is exempt from income tax. This facility will now be available to bodies other those established by Government of Pakistan.

(23) Certain companies to be treated as public for application of tax rates: The tax law provides tax rates for public, private and banking companies but certain other companies included in the definition of a "company" do not fall in these three categories. It is proposed that such companies will be subject to rates applicable to a public company or an individual, whichever is beneficial to taxpayer.

(24) Dividends from non-resident companies to be taxed at concessional rate: At present dividend from non-resident company is taxed at normal rates. It is proposed to tax the dividend receipt from the non-resident companies at the same rates which are applicable to dividend receipt from a resident company.

(25) Concession for indirect exports registered under DTRE Rules 2001: At present suppliers of manufactured goods to direct exports are taxed at 3.5%. To boost up export suppliers registered under DTRE Rules and receiving payments from the direct exporters against a firm contract for supply of manufactured goods for exports, are proposed to be taxed at reduced rates applicable to direct exporters.

(26) Increasing limit for contribution towards annuity scheme of insurance companies: At present, individual taxpayers are entitled to tax credit for payments by way of contribution to an Annuity Scheme of an Insurance Company approved by SECP upto Rs.100,000 or 10% of taxable income – whichever is less. To promote savings the limit for contribution or premium paid in such annuity scheme is proposed to be raised to Rs.200,000 or 10% of the income, whichever is the less.

(27) Construction contractors executed outside Pakistan by a resident person to be taxed at 1%: Payments on account of construction contracts received by a resident person are subject to withholding tax rate at 6%. To facilitate Pakistani Construction Contractors to actively participate in the re-construction activity of Afghanistan and Iraq side by side international and multinational construction companies, it is proposed to tax them at a reduced rate of 1%.

(28) Facility of advance ruling to non-residents investing in Pakistan: Foreign investors in preparing feasibility report on new projects or industries to be set up in Pakistan usually face difficulty in ascertaining the tax component of the project. Following the international practice provision is proposed to be added for advance ruling on the application of the non-resident taxpayer.

(29) Scope of computer software related services for export explained: Income from export of computer software and related services developed in Pakistan is exempt from tax upto June 30, 2016. The scope of such services has been explained to include software development, software maintenance, system integration, web design, web development, web hosting, network design, call centers, medical transcription, remote monitoring, graphic design etc. etc.

(30) Expanding the definition of public company: Certain companies, like Pak Arab Fertilizer Limited, attract the status of private limited company being subsidiary of government owned companies. This places the companies from brother Muslims countries investing in Pakistan at a disadvantageous position. Since such foreign companies are either government companies or government owned companies and the corporations in Pakistan are also owned by the government, it places them at disadvantageous position only for technical reasons. To facilitate them for a future taxation.

(31) Withdrawal of 20 exemptions: Under a conscious policy the Government is continuously reducing exemptions to bring equity in the income tax law. It is, therefore, proposed to withdraw 20 further exemptions from the said schedule.

(32) Self-assessment scheme: With the promulgation of Income Tax Ordinance 2001, it has been ensured that all classes of taxpayers, irrespective of their status, location or income level will be entitled to avail "Self Assessment Scheme" without any conditions for declaration of income, G.P rate or increased payment of tax. To further improve the facility detailed guidelines are being issued for maximum ease of the taxpayers to ensure voluntary compliance. Under-reporting and other cases of risk assessment shall, however, be subjected to audit. Simultaneously, taxpayers would be required to make declaration of their income on the basis of records and books of accounts they maintain.

(33) Amendments in income tax ordinance: Besides, the above changes, a number of other editorial and technical amendments required to be made for streamlining and simplification of the provisions of the new income tax law are also proposed.

(34) Philanthropy: To bring transparency and uniformity in the provision of exemption for non-profit philanthropic activity, it has been decided that Pakistan Center for Philanthropy be assigned the initial responsibility for setting up a rating system for such organizations. This will be done through a transparently laid down criteria developed by qualified professionals.

(35) Repeal of Wealth Tax Act: It is proposed to repeal the Wealth Tax 1963. With this a lingering apprehension among the taxpayers should come to an end.

 

CENTRAL EXCISE DUTY

The following proposals have been formulated in respect of excise duty:

(36) Removal of excise duty on paper and board: As part of its policy to reduce excisable items, it has been decided to abolish central excise duty on paper and paperboard altogether. Consequently, prices of printing and writing paper will come down and text books and stationery items should become less expensive for education.

(37) Removal of excise duty on wires and cables: It is also proposed to withdraw CED on wires and cables to support the construction industry.

(38) Reduction in the duty on cement: To give boost to construction industry it is proposed to reduce the excise duty by 25% on cement.

(39) Restoration of supervised clearance: On the demand of the industry, the system of supervised clearance is being restored on cigarettes and cement.

(40) Adjustment of duty to avoid double taxation: Last year, adjustment of central excise duty was allowed in order to remove double taxation on certain items. This year a simplified procedure is being introduced to facilitate the adjustment of duty paid at import and local stages.

CUSTOMS

The following proposals are proposed for customs:

(41) Incentive for local production of oilseeds: To encourage local production of oilseeds, it is proposed to replace the existing 10% customs duty with 20% sales tax on imported oilseeds. This measure will be neutral for prices of vegetable ghee and cooking oil while providing strong incentives for enhanced local production of oilseeds.

(42) Incentive to engineering Industry: An exercise was conduced by CBR and Ministry of Industries and Production with a view to removing difficulties being faced by various industries and to provide added incentives to core industries. Primarily focus was placed on heavy engineering, light engineering, ceramics, fan industry and casting and forging. Keeping in view the aforementioned objective rate of duty on ….. categories of items being raw materials and components for these industries is proposed to be reduced.

(43) Incentive for local manufacturing: In order to honor our commitments under WTO, deletion programs of 86 industries are being phased out. Consequently these industries would be left outside the scope of concessionary SROs. However, to preserve incentives at the present level a number of new sub-headings are proposed to be created in the customs tariff. This will help to further promote local manufacturing of refrigerators, air conditioners, bulbs and tube lights, electronics and switch gears, boilers etc.

(44) Rationalization of duty on local car industries: In rationalization of customs tariff, duty rates on over 2500 tariff lines were reduced in the budget of the last financial year. The maximum tariff of 25% is applicable to all imports other than automobiles and spirits. The protection to the local car manufacturer has helped to improve production of vehicles. Now the industry has achieved certain level of strength. Therefore, with a view to providing competitive environment to local industry, the rate of duty on import of cars is proposed to be reduced.

(45) Reduction of duty on import of medical equipment and apparatus: Medical equipment and apparatus based on the use of X-rays or other radiation are widely used for diagnostic purposes in the hospitals and medical institutions. In order to ensure availability of such medical equipment and apparatus at lower price, it is proposed to reduce the rate of customs duty on them from 10% to 5%.

(46) Discouraging smuggling: The smuggling of goods has come down. The reduction of customs tariff on various import items has helped to control smuggling. It is proposed to reduce duty on certain others smuggling prone items. These include tea, ball bearing and spices etc.

(47) Measures for export promotion: A number of measures have been taken to simplify the regime for our exporters. Such measures have had a positive effect on our exports. These measures include simplification of documentation, use of IT and telecommunication means for processing and creation of tariff lines for thousands of new export products for better utilization of quota. This is a continuous work and more will be done in consultation with exporters.

SALES TAX

Sales tax is fast emerging as the leading source of revenues. Government is focusing on a number of areas to further streamline the sales tax regime and make it convenient for the taxpayers to comply with its provisions. The following proposals will add further to these objectives:

(48) DTRE Rules: The strategy of no-duty no-drawback scheme envisaged in the DTRE Rules, introduced in the year 2001, holds the promise to resolve the issue of refunds. To speed up the use of this scheme, government has improved its working. A DTRE Committee headed by Chairman, Export Promotion Bureau and comprising all stakeholders was constituted to resolve these issues. On its recommendations, DTRE rules were revised in November, 2002 whereby permission was granted for:-

Refund and input adjustment of sales tax on electricity and gas;

Transfer of duty & tax-free input goods from one DTRE approved person to another;

Domestic sale of admissible wastages, un-utilized input goods and factory rejects; and

Amendments in DTRE approvals;

(49) Revised DTRE Rules: Duty drawback would now be available under DTRE on duty paid inputs purchased domestically. Consequently, inputs purchased domestically and not imported under DTRE will get a proportionate percentage of duty-drawback admissible as per rates already notified for exports. Compensatory duty drawback will also be available under DTRE on locally manufactured PSF on deemed imports basis. The government has also agreed, in principle, to allow DTRE for the purpose of sales tax alone in which case the exporter will be able to procure sales tax free inputs and will be entitled to full duty drawback on his duty paid raw materials. The initial utilization period is being enhanced from 12 months to 18 months and scope of DTRE is being extended to cover supplies against international tenders. The demand of the industry for considering supplies to DTRE manufacturer as exports for the purpose of SRO 554 and income tax has also been approved with necessary safeguards. The government has shown great flexibility for facilitation of exporters by way of the measures mentioned above. We urge the trade & industry to adopt the DTRE scheme to permanently eliminate irritants related to refunds and make their contribution towards documentation of economy.

(50) Sales tax audit: There are complaints that sales tax payers are subjected to audits many times in the same financial year. This cannot be allowed to continue. It is announced that in future there will be only one audit per year by the Sales Tax Department. Unlike in the past, the taxpayer would be provided a copy of the audit report besides the opportunity to explain his point of view with reference to audit observations. The Auditor would also give a certificate to the taxpayer that his record had been audited for a specified period of time.

(51) Settlement of past liabilities: In consultation with Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry and other representative bodies of the taxpayers it has been decided to grant relief for liabilities of sales tax before 30th June, 2000. The persons who have been registered either voluntarily or compulsorily with effect from 01-07-2000, would now be liable to pay turnover tax @ 2% on the basis of their declaration with income tax authorities for the financial years 2000-2001 and 2001-2002 without any additional tax and penalty. Moreover, all business persons who get registered upto 30th September, 2003 pay turnover tax @ 2% only for one year and no question would be asked about past liabilities. This is a major concession to facilitate transition to a full VAT mode tax system. This facility will have to be availed before 30-9-2003.

(52) Incentive for export of high quality agriculture exports: The government has also decided to provide incentives for enhanced exports of high quality products of the agriculture and livestock sectors e.g. rice, dairy produce, graded, sorted and preserved fruits and vegetables, etc. For such uses, selected machinery and equipment previously attracting sales tax will be zero rated.

(53) Removing the import bias of sales tax: The existing GST regime, to the extent of available exemptions, is biased against local production and encourages imports instead. One such anomaly was removed earlier in so far as exemption on procurement of machinery and equipment by the oil and gas sector were concerned by zero-rating local supplies to such sectors. To ensure that local production is not at a disadvantage, the facility of zero-rating is being extended to a number of items. The list of such items is separately provided.

(54) Relief Measures: It is also proposed to reduce the rate of additional tax from 2% to 1% per month besides reduction in penalty for late filing of return from Rs.5000 to Rs.100 per day for the first 15 days after the notified date for filing of return. The mandatory deposit of full adjudged amount of taxes before filing of appeal is also now being reduced to only 25%. However, the Appellate Authority can stay the recovery. Limit of mandatory payment of sale proceeds within a period of 120 days is proposed to be substituted so that the payment of sale proceeds through the banking instruments is only confined to the payment of the amount of sales tax.

(55) Retail stage taxation: To facilitate registration by small traders, it is proposed that the turnover threshold may be enhanced from Rs.5 million to Rs.20 million per annum. A defined set of parameters will be notified to compute the turnover and the tax liability of small and medium enterprises up to the enhanced monetary limits. These parameters will be size and location of the business, type of business, number of workers, amount of capital employed etc. It is hoped that this significant relief will go a long way in improving tax compliance.

(56) Amendments in Sales Tax Act: A number of amendments are also proposed in the Sales Tax Act to facilitate the taxpayers and to remove the legal infirmities besides ensuring facilitation to the taxpayers.

Concluding Remarks

This is a budget without any new taxes. In fact we have proposed a large set of relief measures aimed at improving the welfare of the common man. These include increase in salary, pension and provision for housing finance. In addition, the budget provides encouragement to private sector for investment in SME, housing and agriculture sectors all of which have the potential to create new jobs. The development plan included in the budget will accelerate the growth process and employment creation. This budget will thus be a harbinger of renewed economic activity in the country. This is the need of our economy, which has been stabilized and is now poised for a take-off. This is indeed a golden opportunity for our nation. We have all the necessary elements in place. It is up to us, how far do we want to take this country?

The key to our future success will be our ability to stay the course. Continuation of reforms and consistency of policies are essential. It will be easy to stray this course, more difficult to hold ourselves together and forge ahead with second generation reforms. The dividends of reforms that we are already reaping should be a sufficient basis to hope for an even better future that awaits us.

We must remember what our beloved Quaid-e-Azam had to say on a similar occasion on the completion of the first year of Pakistan:

One year is a brief period in the history of a State for finally assessing its progress or predicting its future. But the way in which tremendous difficulties have been overcome, and solid progress recorded during the last twelve months, gives a firm basis for optimism. In the administrative field, we had to start from scratch at the center. And in West Punjab, at the very inception of our State, we had to face very nearly a breakdown of administrative machinery. But I am glad to say that we have successfully dealt with all threats to our solidarity, and on some major questions of the day, the Pakistan government has displayed not only its determination but its capacity to deal effectively with the various world problems that have arisen from time to time.

Nature has given you everything: you have got unlimited resources. The foundations of your State have been laid, and it is now for you to build and build as quickly as well as you can. So go ahead and I wish you Godspeed.

These precious words of wisdom are still relevant to guide us to traverse the road to future progress. We see a very bright future for Pakistan. A future where Pakistan is a well recognized economic power of the region capable to protect its sovereignty and defend its territorial and ideological based on self reliance and internal strengths. A Pakistan that can play a leading role in the Islamic world and act as a catalyst for world peace and prosperity.

Though not far fetched, to realize this vision, there is no substitute for hard work, determination and devotion. All great nations have passed through the furnace of relentless labor and determination. Prosperity is never begotten from thin air, it is built on the solid foundation of sweat and toil. Perhaps this is precisely the message in this verse from Dr. Allama Iqbal:

 

So let us resolve and pray to Allah that He enables us to rise to the challenge of building Pakistan as a prosperous and respectable nation in the comity of nations. There is no doubt that Allah’s support and grace will be with us if we display sincerity, unity and discipline in our ranks while forging ahead to achieve our goals. May Allah continue to bless Pakistan with His unlimited bounties.

Pakistan Paindabad.


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